U.S.-China Trade Dispute Fans Worries About What's Next for the Stock Market

Core Insights - U.S.-China trade tensions are escalating, potentially leading to a significant pullback in stock markets and increased volatility for investors [1][5][6] - Analysts suggest that without a near-term resolution, the ongoing bull market may face challenges, particularly for momentum stocks with high valuations [2][5] Market Reactions - Recent market trends indicate a rise in gold prices, increased volatility, and vulnerability in tech stocks like Nvidia and Intel, which have negatively impacted broader market indexes [3][6] - The S&P 500 index has already experienced a decline of over 11% from April 1 to April 8, indicating the potential for further corrections [4][8] Analyst Perspectives - Morgan Stanley's equity strategist Michael Wilson warns that the current trade escalation could trigger the first meaningful correction in U.S. stocks since April, with a potential decline of more than 15% for the S&P 500 if tensions persist [4][6] - The firm identifies quality companies and healthcare as the best hedges against short-term policy uncertainty, while sectors like semiconductors and quantum computing are viewed as having the most downside risk [4][6] Economic Implications - Ned Davis Research economists do not foresee a quick resolution to trade tensions, noting that China's exports continue to rise despite high U.S. tariffs, which could prolong negotiations [7] - If a 100% tariff on China is implemented without a truce, it could negate market recovery expectations, with a bear market price target for the S&P 500 set at 4,900, representing a decline of over 25% from current levels [8]