Ge Long Hui·2025-10-15 20:37Core Insights - Baidu's core revenue is expected to decline by 9.5% year-on-year in Q3, with total revenue projected to decrease by 9.2% to 30.5 billion yuan [1] - The company is focusing on AI-driven business transformations and plans to enhance shareholder returns through various capital operations [1][2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for Baidu Group in Q3 is anticipated to be 30.5 billion yuan, with core revenue at 24 billion yuan [1] - The non-GAAP net profit for the group is expected to be 2.2 billion yuan, while the core segment is projected to achieve 2.4 billion yuan [1] AI and Cloud Business - Baidu's AI transformation is nearing completion, with core advertising revenue expected to decline by 23% in Q3 [1] - The AI cloud business is projected to grow by 20% year-on-year, driven by GPU cloud subscription services [2] - The company anticipates a significant increase in the performance of AI commercial products, such as intelligent agents and digital humans [1] Profitability and Efficiency - Q3 is expected to be a temporary low point for operating profit, with a focus on improving efficiency in AI investments [2] - The company aims for a recovery in absolute profit values in Q4 through more refined management practices [2] Valuation and Market Outlook - Baidu maintains its revenue and non-GAAP profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with target prices set at $189 for US shares and HK$183 for Hong Kong shares [2] - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, indicating significant upside potential compared to current market valuations [2]