J&T EXPRESS(1519.HK)：PARCEL GROWTH IN SEA FURTHER ACCELERATED IN 3Q25

Core Insights - J&T's parcel volume growth in 3Q25 reached 23% YoY, with Southeast Asia (SEA) showing remarkable growth of 79% YoY, while China experienced a slowdown to 10% YoY due to the "anti-involution" campaign [1][2] - The company maintains a full-year parcel volume growth guidance of 56% in SEA and 40% in new markets, indicating strong growth potential [1][3] - J&T's average selling price (ASP) recovery aligns with industry trends, although low average order value customers are exiting the market [2] Group 1: Southeast Asia Performance - SEA volume increased by 79% YoY to 2 billion units, accelerating from 50% YoY in 1Q25 and 66% YoY in 2Q25 [1] - Growth in SEA is attributed to increased e-commerce penetration and J&T's market share gains, with a market share of 32.8% in 1H25 [1] Group 2: China Performance - China volume grew by 10% YoY to 5.6 billion units, a decrease from 15% in 2Q24, largely due to the "anti-involution" campaign [2] - ASP recovery in China was consistent with industry trends, indicating a potential shift in customer demographics as low AOV customers exit [2] Group 3: New Markets Performance - New markets volume rose by 48% YoY to 104 million units, driven by new customer acquisition [3] - Despite anticipated growth slowdown in Mexico due to tariff increases, growth in Brazil is expected to offset this impact [3]