Ge Long Hui·2025-10-15 20:58Core Viewpoint - JD.com is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 13.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching 295.54 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 4.4 billion yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 1.49%, down from 5.06% in the same period last year [1][2] Revenue Forecast - The anticipated revenue growth for JD.com in Q3 2025 is driven by a 10% increase in retail revenue, while the daily necessities category continues to perform well, maintaining high growth rates [1][2] - The impact of national subsidy policies is becoming evident, particularly affecting the growth rate of the electric appliance category, which is expected to slow down significantly [1] Profitability Analysis - New business investments are expected to continue to drag down profit performance, although the absolute loss from food delivery investments has narrowed this quarter [2] - The adjusted operating profit for JD Retail (JDR) is projected to be approximately 13.5 billion yuan, with a profit margin of about 5.5%, slightly above the consensus estimate [2] Future Projections - For 2025 and 2026, JD.com’s revenue is forecasted to be 1.3243 trillion yuan and 1.3951 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 14.28% and 5.34%, respectively [2] - Non-GAAP net profits for 2025 and 2026 are expected to be 28.166 billion yuan and 46.797 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -41.11% and 66.15% [2] Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 193.07 HKD, corresponding to a 12x PE for the group in 2026 [2]