Ge Long Hui·2025-10-15 20:58Core Viewpoint - JD Group is expected to report a strong Q3 2025 revenue growth of 13% year-on-year, driven by government subsidies boosting retail income, despite a decline in Non-GAAP net profit margin by 4 percentage points [1][2][3] Revenue Performance - Q3 revenue is projected to reach 293.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase, primarily due to government subsidies enhancing JD's retail revenue growth [1][2] - JD's retail revenue growth is anticipated at 11%, with high single-digit growth in electronic categories and double-digit growth in daily necessities, although there is a slight sequential decline due to a high base effect from the previous year [1][2] - The growth rates for JD's retail, logistics, and new businesses in Q3 are expected to be 11%, 20%, and 230% respectively [1][2] Operational Insights - JD's GMV growth is estimated at around 15%, with market share continuing to recover, mainly driven by the replacement of old electronics [3] - Active purchasing users and purchase frequency in e-commerce are showing strong growth, benefiting from government subsidies and the new food delivery business [3] - Among the new food delivery users acquired in March-April, 40% have converted to main site users by July [3] Profitability Analysis - The Non-GAAP net profit margin for Q3 2025 is expected to be 1.4%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - JD's retail operating profit margin is projected to increase by 0.3 percentage points, attributed to improved supply chain efficiency and faster growth in commission and advertising revenue [3] - The new food delivery business continues to incur losses, but there is an improvement in user experience due to more precise subsidies and enhanced delivery efficiency [3] Investment Outlook - The company maintains an "outperform" rating, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted to 1.3348 trillion, 1.4197 trillion, and 1.4882 trillion yuan, with no change in growth rates [2][3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 29.8 billion, 40.8 billion, and 56.7 billion yuan, reflecting slight upward adjustments [2][3]