帮主郑重：鲍威尔放鸽，本月降息稳了？就业这颗雷得盯紧

Core Viewpoint - The statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a likely interest rate cut of 25 basis points later this month, reflecting a cautious approach to economic conditions and labor market trends [3][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Jerome Powell highlighted that the economic outlook remains largely unchanged, suggesting a continuation of the interest rate cut cycle [3]. - Powell expressed concerns about slowing job growth, indicating that fewer job openings could lead to an increase in the unemployment rate [3][5]. - The market has almost fully priced in a rate cut in October, with expectations nearing 100% [3]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Boston Fed President Collins emphasized the need for a modest rate cut of 25 basis points to support the labor market without risking inflation [4]. - Current monthly job growth of around 40,000 is deemed sufficient to maintain the unemployment rate, a significant decrease from the pre-pandemic requirement of 80,000 [5]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, attributed to either reduced demand from businesses or slower immigration, which the Fed has yet to fully understand [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The Fed faces a dilemma: supporting a cooling labor market with rate cuts while ensuring inflation does not rise above the target [5]. - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding the number of rate cuts needed this year, with some advocating for only one cut while others suggest two [5]. - The unemployment rate's potential increase poses a significant risk to the economy and markets, which could have deeper implications than a single rate cut [5].