张尧浠：金价4300阻力或下下周将再迎阶段性调整风险

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to face a phase of adjustment after reaching resistance levels around 4300, with potential support near 3800 in the event of a significant pullback [1][3][6] Technical Analysis - Monthly chart indicates a resistance zone between 4280-4330, with actual price action determining the specific resistance point [3] - Weekly chart shows the current week is the 8th week of a 9-week sequence, suggesting a potential peak and subsequent pullback in the next week or the week after [3] - Historical pullbacks have typically retraced to the midline and the 30-week moving average, indicating a possible rebound after a drop to around 3800 [3] Fundamental Analysis - Current fundamentals appear favorable for gold prices, with no immediate support for a technical peak and pullback [4] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown and potential interest rate decisions could influence market sentiment, with a hawkish stance or no rate cuts being key factors [4][6] - Economic concerns are expected to rise due to the government shutdown affecting October's economic and employment data, which may increase expectations for rate cuts [6] Future Outlook - The likelihood of a more dovish Federal Reserve chair being appointed in 2026 could accelerate the pace of rate cuts, reinforcing a bullish outlook for gold prices over the next one to two years [6] - Even with potential short-term adjustments, these may present opportunities for re-entry into the market [6]