Core Insights - The impact of the baby boom in the Year of the Dragon (2024) on the infant formula market is gradually diminishing, leading to intensified competition among major brands focusing on technological advancements rather than price wars [1] - Major infant formula brands, including China Feihe, are launching upgraded products aimed at precise nutrition, reflecting a shift in strategy to maintain market share amid concerns over insufficient recovery momentum [1][2] - Despite a temporary increase in newborn population and sales growth in certain segments, the overall growth momentum for infant formula is weakening as the newborn bonus fades [2][4] Industry Trends - Data from Nielsen IQ indicates that from January to August 2025, the overall sales of infant formula in China grew by 1.6%, primarily driven by a 13.5% increase in Stage 2 formula, while Stage 3 saw a decline of 6.5% [2] - The newborn population in 2024 reached 9.54 million, an increase of 520,000 from the previous year, contributing to a brief recovery in the maternal and infant industry [2] - Market observations suggest a renewed decline in sales, with increasing brand differentiation and competition pressures, particularly for smaller brands facing challenges from larger competitors [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Major brands are leveraging their research and development capabilities to further squeeze the market share of smaller brands, with a focus on differentiated products tailored to specific age groups and dietary needs [5] - The number of registered infant formula brands has decreased, but there is still potential for increased market concentration, with 93 companies having 426 formula series registered by August 2025 [5] - Analysts predict that the competitive pressure on infant formula companies will intensify in the coming months, with the sustainability of recovery for leading brands remaining uncertain [4][5]
龙年生育红利消退，奶粉头部玩家技术军备竞赛鸣枪