然而，由于HMO种类繁多、结构复杂，目前已知有超过200种不同结构的HMOs，长期以来对整个行业检测与分析构成了重大挑战。 过去国内外一直没有HMO的检测标准，飞鹤牵头制定的国际首个HMO检测团标，不仅填补了HMO在配方食品中检测方法的空缺，也为新产品的研发和生产 提供了技术保证，更为相关产品的质量检测提供了科学依据。 此次，经过长期布局和持续积累，飞鹤再次突破科研"无人区"，成功革新HMOs检测技术，最新发布的HMOs数据库是中国首个应用型HMOs数据库，开创 性实现了233种全谱系母乳低聚糖的综合筛查和精准分析，极大提升研究速度和效率，开启了母乳低聚糖精准分析新纪元。 智通财经APP获悉，5月23-25日，中国乳制品工业协会第三十一次年会暨2025年中国乳业技术博览会在江苏南京召开。在本次年会的 "新技术 新设备 新原料 新产品'四新'发布会"上，中国飞鹤(06186)正式发布飞鹤母乳低聚糖(HMOs)全谱系结构数据库。 据悉，该数据库是国内首个应用型HMOs数据库，具备全谱系、高精度、实操性强等特点，突破了HMOs检测与辨认的行业性难题，实现全谱系HMOs的精 准分析，极大提升研究速度和效率，经中国食品 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is one of the earliest milk powder enterprises in China, focusing on infant formula business, with a significant performance turning point expected in 2024 due to channel reforms and high-end product development [1] - The company has abundant cash on hand, with a projected dividend payout ratio increasing to 76% in 2024, highlighting its strong dividend attributes [1] Group 2: Product and Brand Strategy - The company emphasizes high-end product development, particularly through the "Xing Fei Fan" series, which has seen the proportion of high-end products in infant formula revenue increase from 22% in 2016 to 75% in 2024 [1] - Marketing strategies include high-frequency offline interactions and continuous upgrades to the online membership system to enhance consumer engagement and data retention [1] Group 3: Industry Trends and Market Position - The infant formula industry is expected to see a rebound in demand, with a projected decline in market size narrowing due to a recovery in birth rates in 2024 [2] - The market concentration in the infant formula sector is increasing, with the top five companies' market share rising from 35% in 2015 to 66% in 2024, indicating potential for further growth [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are expected to reach 221.7 billion, 236.3 billion, and 251.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.9%, 6.6%, and 6.5% respectively [3] - The company's net profit forecasts for the same period are 38.7 billion, 43.0 billion, and 47.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.4%, 11%, and 10.2% respectively, indicating a strong financial outlook [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic infant formula producer, with a significant turnaround in performance expected in 2024 due to channel reforms and a focus on high-end products [8]. - The company has a strong cash position and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 76% in 2024, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns [8]. - The infant formula industry is anticipated to rebound, driven by a recovery in birth rates and a sustained trend towards premiumization [8]. Summary by Sections 1. High Dividend and Performance Turnaround - China Feihe is one of the earliest milk powder companies in China, focusing on infant formula and maintaining a leading market share [14]. - The company has experienced a significant decline in performance from 2021 to 2023 but is expected to show improvements in 2024, with revenue and net profit projected to grow by 6.2% and 5.3% respectively [20][19]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio has increased from 40.2% in 2019 to 76% in 2024, indicating a strong focus on returning value to shareholders [32]. 2. Strategic Focus on Premium Products and Channel Management - The company has shifted its focus to high-end products, with the ultra-premium "Xing Fei Fan" series accounting for 75% of its infant formula revenue in 2024, up from 22% in 2016 [8][36]. - Marketing strategies include high-profile promotions and enhanced consumer engagement, leading to a strong brand presence in the market [49]. - The company has improved its channel management, particularly in the maternal and infant sectors, and has expanded its online presence post-pandemic [8]. 3. Industry Demand Recovery and Market Position - The infant formula market in China is expected to see a marginal recovery, with a projected decline of only 1.2% in 2025, influenced by a rebound in birth rates [8]. - China Feihe holds a 17.5% market share in the infant formula sector, indicating room for growth compared to international competitors [8]. - The company is enhancing its channel control and product offerings, particularly with the "Xing Fei Fan" series, which is expected to drive revenue growth and improve profit margins [8]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for China Feihe are projected at 221.7 billion, 236.3 billion, and 251.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.7 billion, 43.0 billion, and 47.3 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 13x in 2025 to 10x in 2027, indicating a potentially undervalued stock compared to peers [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Views - China Feihe is positioned as a leading domestic infant formula brand, with a significant turning point in performance expected in 2024 due to channel reforms and a focus on high-end products [8]. - The company has a strong cash position and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 76% in 2024, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns [8]. - The infant formula industry is anticipated to rebound, with a sustained trend towards high-end products, benefiting China Feihe's strategic focus [8]. Summary by Sections 1. High Dividend and Performance Turning Point - China Feihe is one of the earliest milk powder companies in China, focusing on infant formula and maintaining the top market share [14]. - The company has experienced a significant decline in performance from 2021 to 2023 but is expected to show improvements in 2024, with revenue and net profit projected to grow by 6.2% and 5.3% respectively [20][19]. 2. Strategic Focus on High-End Products - The company has shifted its focus to high-end infant formula products, with the ultra-high-end product line, Star Flying, increasing its revenue share from 22% in 2016 to 75% in 2024 [8][36]. - China Feihe has implemented a robust marketing strategy, achieving the highest brand recognition in the infant formula sector in China [49]. 3. Industry Demand and Market Position - The infant formula market in China is expected to see a marginal recovery, driven by a rebound in birth rates and supportive policies [8]. - China Feihe holds a market share of 17.5% in the infant formula sector, with potential for further growth compared to international competitors [8]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for China Feihe are set at 221.7 billion, 236.3 billion, and 251.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.7 billion, 43.0 billion, and 47.3 billion yuan [1]. - The company is currently undervalued compared to peers, with a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 13x in 2025 to 10x in 2027 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The dialogue at the FBIF 2025 Food and Beverage Innovation Forum highlighted China Feihe's innovative research and product expansion strategy, focusing on a full age range from infants to the elderly, in response to market demands and demographic changes [1][2]. Group 1: Product Innovation and Development - China Feihe is currently the leading company in infant formula sales both domestically and globally, and is expanding its product offerings beyond infants to include children, youth, adults, and the elderly [1]. - The company is developing higher quality products that are closer to breast milk for infants, while also addressing the nutritional needs of the aging population in China [2]. Group 2: Research Initiatives - In 2022, China Feihe led a key research initiative under the Ministry of Science and Technology's "14th Five-Year Plan," aiming to establish the largest maternal and infant cohort study in China, with over 3,000 mother-infant pairs and more than 6,000 breast milk samples to analyze regional variations and their impact on child development [3]. Group 3: Raw Material Production - China Feihe has made significant advancements in domestic production of essential raw materials for infant formula, such as lactoferrin and whey protein, to reduce reliance on imports, especially in light of current trade tensions [4]. Group 4: Global Market Strategy - The company has established a production facility in Canada to cater to the North American market, designing products based on local breast milk characteristics, and is also exploring opportunities in Southeast Asia through local collaborations [5]. - Future plans include expanding infant products internationally while aligning research efforts with local scientists to better understand regional nutritional needs [6].

Core Viewpoint - China Feihe has released its 2024 Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) report, highlighting its commitment to sustainable practices and social responsibility through various initiatives aimed at ecological preservation and community welfare [1] Group 1: Environmental Initiatives - Feihe has actively responded to the national "dual carbon" strategy, implementing a "plant-animal cycle" ecological model that processes 40,000 tons of corn straw and 100,000 tons of manure annually, enhancing soil organic matter by 1% across 14,000 acres [1] - The model is projected to reduce carbon emissions by nearly 400,000 tons per year, equivalent to planting over 20 million trees, and has been recognized by the United Nations as a replicable solution for agriculture in high-altitude regions [1] - In 2024, Feihe's emission reduction initiatives saved 817,900 kWh of energy, conserved 138,400 tons of water, and reduced natural gas usage by 302,600 cubic meters, leading to a decrease of 1,143.8 tons of CO2 emissions [2] Group 2: Clean Energy and Sustainability - Feihe has completed the "coal-to-gas" project across all its factories, becoming the first in the dairy industry to do so, and has expanded its solar energy capacity, generating 20.96 million kWh in 2024, which reduced CO2 emissions by 11,300 tons [2] - The company utilized 15.77 million cubic meters of biomass biogas, resulting in a reduction of 31,000 tons of CO2 emissions [2] - Feihe's total environmental investment in 2024 reached 28.56 million yuan, with three factories achieving national-level green factory certification [2] Group 3: Social Responsibility and Innovation - Feihe has established an innovation ecosystem that spans basic research, technological breakthroughs, and industrial transformation, with 153 new domestic and international patents granted in 2024, totaling 659 patents [3] - The company has initiated a 1.2 billion yuan maternity subsidy program, providing at least 1,500 yuan to eligible pregnant families, positioning itself as a leader in supporting national fertility initiatives [3] - Feihe has created 170,000 jobs and helped over 160,000 farmers increase their income, contributing to the revitalization of rural areas in Heilongjiang [3]

Financial Performance - Revenue increased from RMB 19,532.2 million in 2023 to RMB 20,748.6 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%[10] - Gross profit rose from RMB 12,663.4 million in 2023 to RMB 13,764.8 million in 2024, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth[10] - Net profit increased from RMB 3,290.4 million in 2023 to RMB 3,654.1 million in 2024, marking an 11.1% year-on-year rise[10] - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 35,725.7 million, compared to RMB 36,194.7 million in 2023[8] - Total equity increased to RMB 27,407.4 million in 2024 from RMB 26,334.3 million in 2023[8] - Profit before tax rose by 14.4% from RMB 4,850.3 million in 2023 to RMB 5,549.7 million in 2024[45] - Other income and net gains decreased by 11.7% from RMB 1,659.5 million in 2023 to RMB 1,465.1 million in 2024, primarily due to reduced government subsidies[39] - Cash and cash equivalents amounted to RMB 9,321.2 million as of December 31, 2024, including unrestricted time deposits and similar cash-like assets[49] - The debt-to-equity ratio improved from 0.36 in 2023 to 0.32 in 2024, indicating a stronger capital structure[52] Market and Product Development - The company launched new nutritional products such as "Supernova Cheese" and "Aiben Dynamic Protein Powder" to meet personalized nutrition needs[11] - The company is committed to product innovation and aims to lead the all-age nutrition sector, aligning with its mission to deliver love through nutrition[15] - Revenue from infant formula products accounted for 91.9% of total revenue in 2024, amounting to RMB 19,061.6 million, a 6.6% increase from the previous year[34] - The company has a strong focus on the infant nutrition market, with leadership roles held by former executives from Nestlé and Coca-Cola[77] - The company is actively involved in research and development to innovate new products in the health and nutrition sector[71] Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company held over 920,000 face-to-face seminars during the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, to maximize consumer engagement[28] - The company plans to continue enhancing its marketing strategies, focusing on both online and offline channels to strengthen brand association[27] - The company has a distribution network of over 2,800 offline customers covering more than 77,000 retail points, with 77.1% of total revenue from dairy products generated through these sales channels[23] Corporate Social Responsibility and Governance - The company was recognized in the "2024 ESG Excellence Practice Report" and ranked among the "Top 100 ESG Listed Companies in China" for its achievements in ESG development[12] - The company participated in drafting three national standards related to "green manufacturing" to promote sustainable development[12] - The company made charitable donations of approximately RMB 26.4 million for the year ending December 31, 2024[112] Future Outlook and Strategic Plans - China Feihe aims to enhance its global brand influence and expand overseas markets, focusing on becoming a "global Feihe" through continuous innovation in maternal milk research and all-age nutrition[15] - The company plans to continue focusing on independent innovation, particularly in areas such as breast milk research and brain development research, to enhance its product offerings[62] - Market expansion plans include entering two new international markets by Q3 2024[68] - The company is considering strategic acquisitions to enhance its market position, with a budget of $100 million set aside for potential deals[69] Shareholder Information and Dividends - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.1632 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, totaling approximately HKD 1,479,775,000 (equivalent to about RMB 1,366,120,000) pending shareholder approval[101] - The company aims to maintain a dividend policy of distributing no less than 30% of net profit for each financial year, subject to future investment plans[102] - As of December 31, 2024, the company's distributable reserves amount to approximately RMB 13,172.6 million, of which RMB 1,366.1 million is proposed for the final dividend[111] Management and Governance Structure - The management team has extensive experience, with key executives having over 30 years in the dairy industry[65] - The board of directors includes independent members with diverse backgrounds in finance, healthcare, and management, ensuring robust governance[80] - The company has established a strong foundation in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices, with dedicated committees overseeing these initiatives[80] Financial Management and Capital Allocation - The company plans to allocate HKD 2,621.9 million for offshore debt repayment, with HKD 208.3 million remaining to be used by December 31, 2025[117] - Potential acquisition opportunities are estimated at HKD 1,310.9 million, with no amount yet utilized[117] - The company has unutilized funds amounting to HKD 1,488.1 million, which is expected to be fully utilized by December 31, 2025[118]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of UBS indicates a continuous decline in China's dairy cow inventory, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.5%, reaching 6.09 million heads as of March 2025 [1] - The profitability of dairy farming is under pressure, with approximately 93% of farming groups operating at a loss, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous month, resulting in a milk production profit of -0.36 yuan per kilogram, which is a deterioration of 0.14 yuan month-on-month [1] - Major dairy companies, including Yili and Feihe, have announced fertility subsidy plans in response to national policies, with Yili providing 1.6 billion yuan and Feihe 1.2 billion yuan to support families preparing for childbirth [2] Group 2 - The demand for dairy products remains weak, with retail sales continuing to decline year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [2] - The price of raw milk has slightly decreased to 3.07 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.3% and a year-on-year decline of 12% [3] - The cost pressures from soybean meal have eased due to sufficient supply from South America, although recent tariffs on U.S. agricultural imports may create upward pressure on soybean meal and alfalfa prices [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs upgraded China Feihe Limited to a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 7.40 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7.52, based on a calculated equity value of RMB 634 billion [2][9][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a focus on enhancing product structure and shareholder returns, with a significant dividend payout of RMB 27.5 billion and a dividend payout ratio of 78% [8]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 20.75 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 3.57 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year [4][8]. - The company is experiencing a strong performance in its premium product lines, particularly the "卓睿" brand, which is expected to see sales growth exceeding 60% [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: RMB 21.61 billion (2025E), RMB 22.99 billion (2026E), and RMB 24.31 billion (2027E), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.1%, 6.4%, and 5.7% [4]. - The forecasted earnings per share for 2025-2027 are RMB 0.44, RMB 0.47, and RMB 0.51, respectively [2][9]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 67.1% by 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to reach 18.6% [4][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes the FCFF valuation method, resulting in a calculated equity value of RMB 634 billion, translating to a target price of HKD 7.52 [2][9]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 15.4 in 2023 to 11.3 by 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [4][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a 62.87% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [6].