PTA 偏弱运行

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain has been under price pressure since early September, with PTA futures showing weak performance and prices stabilizing around 4500 yuan/ton after the National Day holiday [1] Supply Side - As of early October, PTA weekly capacity utilization has increased by approximately 7 percentage points compared to the end of August, reaching 77.84%. PX weekly capacity utilization rose to 88.23%, up about 3.6 percentage points, while polyester capacity utilization remained stable at 87.8%, a rise of about 1.14 percentage points [1][3] - Several major facilities are still offline, with uncertain restart dates. Facilities that are currently offline include the 1.2 million ton facility at Sanfangxiang, the 1.2 million ton facility at Taiwan Chemical, and the 2.25 million ton facility at Yisheng Dalian, among others. The restart of these facilities is pending [3] - There are expectations for maintenance in October for the 1 million ton facility at Sichuan Energy Investment and the 2.5 million ton facility at Dushan Energy, which may limit the overall increase in PTA capacity utilization [3] Demand Side - As of early October, demand from the weaving terminal remains strong, with improved inquiry atmosphere for autumn and winter home textiles and apparel fabrics. However, foreign trade orders are still relatively low [4] - The average capacity utilization for long filaments is approximately 91.39%, for short fibers is about 86.96%, and for bottle flakes is around 71.16%, all showing slight increases compared to August [4] - The overall demand performance during the National Day holiday was weak, with manufacturers primarily focusing on fulfilling previous orders rather than actively procuring raw materials [4] Market Outlook - The PTA market is expected to continue a dual increase in supply and demand in October, with more uncertainties on the supply side compared to the demand side. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of facility restarts and maintenance, which may adjust supply expectations [4] - The cost side shows limited supply-demand contradictions for PX, with weak crude oil prices. PTA futures prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation trend, with the main contract operating in the range of 4400 to 4800 yuan/ton and spot processing fees between 100 to 300 yuan/ton [4]