东北：总产量同比稳中有增

Core Insights - The corn market in China is transitioning as the new harvest season begins, with key focus on production estimates, farmer selling sentiment, and downstream inventory building [2] Production and Yield - Corn yield in Heilongjiang is expected to increase year-on-year despite a slight decrease in planting area due to favorable weather conditions, with yields ranging from 12 to 13 tons per hectare, and some areas achieving up to 20 tons per hectare [3] - The quality of the new corn crop is reported to be better than last year, with specific gravity levels between 710-750 g/L [3] Cost of Production - The cost of corn production in Heilongjiang has decreased, primarily due to lower land rental costs, with average land rent around 12,000 RMB per hectare compared to 13,000 RMB last year [4] - Total planting costs are estimated between 17,000 to 21,000 RMB per hectare, with a calculated cost of approximately 1,500 RMB per ton for 30% moisture corn [4] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is cautious, with new corn prices starting high but declining due to strong harvest expectations and limited inventory building by processing companies [6][5] - Farmers are willing to hold onto their corn if prices fall below 0.8 RMB per jin, indicating a focus on price support levels [6] Market Outlook - The corn market is expected to remain stable with limited price fluctuations, influenced by planting costs, farmer selling sentiment, and inventory building by downstream enterprises [8] - The price range for corn at Jinzhou Port has been between 2,000 to 2,400 RMB per ton, with a recent price of 2,310 RMB per ton [7] Derivatives Market Participation - Participation in the corn futures market has increased, with industry players recognizing the importance of futures for price discovery and risk management [9] - The use of basis pricing and hedging strategies is becoming more common among traders and processing companies, with basis pricing accounting for 30% to 50% of transactions [9][10] - The "Silver Futures" project has provided financial support to farmers, enhancing their ability to manage risks and secure sales post-harvest [10]