内地：持续降雨带来新变化

Core Insights - The recent weather conditions, including drought followed by heavy rainfall, have significantly impacted the corn production in major summer planting regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Hebei, leading to concerns over both yield and quality [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Weather Impact on Corn Production - From June to early September, regions like Henan experienced severe drought, with average temperatures reaching 30.5°C, 3.2°C higher than the historical average, resulting in over 55% of monitoring stations reporting severe drought conditions [2]. - The transition to heavy rainfall in September has further complicated the situation, causing damage to crops that had survived the drought, with reports of corn being waterlogged and spoiled [3][4]. - The ongoing wet conditions have delayed the harvesting of corn and other crops, affecting the quality and yield, with predictions of a significant decline in both [5][6]. Group 2: Market Implications - The adverse weather conditions are expected to lead to a market split, where low-quality corn may see a price drop while high-quality corn could experience price increases due to reduced availability [5][6]. - The total corn planting area in Henan exceeds 60 million acres, and the combined production from Henan, Hebei, and Shandong is around 85 million tons, indicating a substantial potential impact on the domestic corn market if production declines [5][6]. - The Northeast region, with high-quality corn and lower prices, is anticipated to become a key supplier to fill the gap in the domestic market, especially as imports and alternative grains have decreased [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is currently cautious, with stakeholders uncertain about the extent of the damage and the subsequent market dynamics, particularly regarding the high moisture corn that needs drying and storage [7][8]. - Long-term projections suggest that the Northeast corn will become increasingly sought after due to the expected supply shortages in the inland markets, driven by strong demand for high-quality corn [7][8].