甲醇 供需结构改善

Core Viewpoint - Recent U.S. sanctions have significantly impacted Iran's methanol exports to China, leading to supply chain uncertainties and increased futures prices for methanol [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact of Sanctions - Nine key vessels responsible for transporting Iranian methanol to China have been added to the SDN list, affecting over 4 million tons of annual transport capacity, which is about 40% of Iran's methanol exports to China [2][3]. - The sanctions have led to urgent meetings among domestic storage and port facilities to discuss countermeasures, as the restrictions on unloading methanol have increased market replenishment intentions [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Import Dynamics - As the largest methanol importer globally, China sources 25%-30% of its methanol from Iran, which has maintained a price advantage due to its abundant natural gas resources [3]. - The sanctions have disrupted logistics and caused international shipping insurance companies to halt coverage for vessels involved in Iranian routes, exacerbating scheduling issues [3]. - Current high domestic port inventories may mask structural issues, as continued restrictions on Iranian methanol could lead to raw material shortages for coastal MTO plants, increasing regional spot prices [3]. Group 3: Demand Recovery and Market Outlook - Following the National Day holiday, domestic MTO plants have resumed operations, maintaining high utilization rates, with an average operating load of 87.97% as of October 10, 2025 [4]. - Despite high port inventories, there is an expectation of inventory reduction as methanol imports from Iran decline and MTO operating rates increase [4]. - Historical trends suggest that methanol port inventories typically enter a depletion phase around mid-October, indicating potential improvements in market supply-demand dynamics [4].