铜价站上高位后波动加剧

Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coexistence of supply shortages and resilient demand is driving copper prices upward [1] - Global major copper mining companies are expected to see a year-on-year production increase of only 1.28% in the first half of 2025, falling short of initial expectations [2] - The Grasberg mine, operated by Freeport-McMoRan, began production stoppage in September, with a projected reduction of approximately 200,000 tons in Q4 2025, impacting global copper supply significantly [2] - Other supply disruptions occurred in 2025, including interruptions at Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente mines due to earthquakes, highlighting the fragility of global copper supply [2] Processing Fees and Production - Copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) have been declining since early 2025, entering negative territory after April [3] - Despite negative TC, smelters maintain cash flow due to profitable by-products like sulfuric acid and silver, avoiding large-scale production cuts for now [3] - However, a decline in sulfuric acid prices could lead to cash flow losses for smelters, potentially resulting in temporary production cuts [3] Demand Trends - Global refined copper consumption increased by 5.94% year-on-year from January to July 2025, with China showing a strong growth rate of 11.45% [4] - The surge in Chinese copper demand is attributed to preemptive exports due to anticipated U.S. tariffs and a significant increase in solar and wind power installations [4] - Demand growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 due to demand pull-forward effects, but overall supply-demand imbalance remains limited [4] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts provide a favorable macroeconomic environment for copper prices [5] - The U.S. dollar index has been weakening since early 2025, falling below the 100 mark, which supports copper price increases [5] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" policy has led to a weakening of the dollar's short-term safe-haven appeal [6] Trading Dynamics - The "TACO trading" logic remains relevant, where initial market panic from unexpected policies is followed by a rebound as the situation stabilizes [7] - The likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December 2025 is high, which could benefit copper prices if the U.S. economy remains weak but not in recession [8] - Recent trends show an expanding premium of COMEX copper over LME copper, driven by U.S. tariffs and strategic resource considerations [9] Conclusion - The combination of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply disruptions from the Grasberg mine has led to new highs in copper prices [9] - The medium to long-term outlook for copper remains positive due to strong fundamentals, but volatility is expected as macroeconomic factors and demand changes evolve [9]