国债 依然具备配置价值

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, benefiting from a low base effect and strong external demand, despite a 27.0% decline in exports to the US [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, indicating a relatively positive signal driven by rising jewelry prices [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to low base effects [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - The funding environment is gradually becoming looser, with key rates such as DR001 and DR007 at approximately 1.31% and 1.43% respectively, indicating a balanced but slightly relaxed liquidity situation [4] - The People's Bank of China has injected a net liquidity of 400 billion yuan through reverse repos, reflecting a supportive stance towards market liquidity [4] - Despite a balanced liquidity outlook, expectations for further monetary easing are weak, limiting the potential for further declines in funding costs [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - Recent volatility in domestic asset prices is attributed to ongoing uncertainties from US-China trade tensions, although market sentiment has shifted towards optimism compared to April [5] - The necessity for moderate allocation of certain-term government bonds remains to hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - Overall, holiday consumption data showed moderate growth, external demand remains resilient, and domestic inflation is low, providing support for the bond market [5]