基本面利空持续发酵，国际原油价格弱势恐难改

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market has experienced a significant downturn in October, breaking the range-bound trend of the third quarter, with Brent crude futures dropping to a low of $61.5 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling below $58 per barrel, marking the lowest levels since early June this year, with a cumulative decline of over 5% for the month [1] Market Dynamics - Short-term uncertainties in international trade may lead to market sentiment fluctuations, impacting oil prices [1] - On a macro level, the global economy is showing weak recovery without entering recession, and the Federal Reserve's preemptive rate cuts provide some liquidity support for oil but fail to reverse the bearish fundamentals in the oil market [1] Geopolitical and Supply-Demand Factors - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza has reduced geopolitical risk support for oil prices [1] - OPEC+ continues to push for increased oil production, leading to greater supply-side pressure, while the demand side faces seasonal declines, indicating a growing oversupply situation in the oil market, which will exert downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [1]