QT接近尾声 鲍威尔“鸽声”一锤定音 10月降息几成定局

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is signaling a potential interest rate cut in October due to signs of a cooling labor market [1][7] - Powell indicated that the quantitative tightening (QT) program may be nearing its end, as the financial system's liquidity conditions are tightening [1][3] - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from over $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion since mid-2022 due to QT measures [3] Group 2 - The end of QT is seen as a way to balance market sentiment, control inflation, and adjust liquidity conditions, with the timing differing from the cessation of interest rate hikes [4][5] - Analysts predict that ending QT could improve market liquidity, alleviate pressure on the bond market, and enhance expectations for monetary policy easing [5][6] Group 3 - Market expectations for a rate cut have increased, with concerns about the labor market overshadowing inflation risks [7][8] - The anticipated rate cut is expected to lower the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, reflecting the impact of easing monetary policy on asset prices [9][10] Group 4 - A preventive rate cut is likely to benefit U.S. equities by enhancing market liquidity and reducing financing costs for companies [11] - The expected decline in U.S. Treasury yields may improve global financial market conditions and attract capital to emerging markets [11][12]