Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) 智通财经网·2025-10-15 23:53Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is expected to maintain positive growth in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of the year, with a narrowing decline in net interest income and a marginal increase in fee income, while other non-interest income shows a slowdown [1][4] Revenue and Profit - The estimated cumulative revenue growth for Q3 2025 is +0.4%, with city commercial banks leading in performance, while large banks are also expected to achieve positive revenue growth [4] - The projected net profit growth for Q3 2025 is around +1.1%, with city commercial banks expected to have the highest net profit growth [4] Interest Income - Net interest income is projected to decline by -0.6% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a continued narrowing of the decline [1] - The industry is expected to stabilize its net interest margin in Q3 2025, with a slight increase of +0.7 basis points quarter-on-quarter [1] Non-Interest Income - Fee income is expected to recover, with a projected growth rate of +3.7% year-on-year for Q3 2025, despite pressures from fund and insurance fee rate adjustments [2] - Other non-interest income is projected to grow by +2.7% year-on-year in Q3 2025, supported by diversified income from large banks [2] Asset Quality - The asset quality is expected to remain stable, with improvements in corporate loans and a slowdown in retail loan exposure [3] - The retail loan non-performing rate is estimated at 1.27% for the first half of 2025, showing a gradual increase compared to the end of 2024, indicating a stable trend [3] Investment Recommendations - The banking sector is transitioning from a "pro-cyclical" to a "weak cycle" phase, with a focus on the stability and sustainability of the sector [4] - Investment suggestions include focusing on city commercial banks with growth potential and low valuations, particularly in regions like Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu-Chongqing, Shandong, and Fujian [4]