美联储“褐皮书”：关税提高、需求疲软致美国形势充满挑战

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's report indicates that overall economic activity in the U.S. has not changed significantly since the last report, with mixed growth across different regions [1] - Consumer spending, particularly in retail, has seen a slight decline, while demand for leisure and hotel services from international travelers has further decreased [1] - Middle and low-income households are increasingly seeking discounts and promotions due to rising prices and economic uncertainty [1] Economic Activity - Three regions reported slight to moderate growth, five regions reported no change, and four regions indicated a slight slowdown in economic activity [1] - Agricultural, energy, and transportation activities have generally declined across the 12 reporting districts [1] Labor Market and Costs - Demand for labor is generally weak across regions and industries, with rising prices reported during the reporting period [2] - Input costs are accelerating due to increased import costs and rising expenses in services such as insurance, healthcare, and technology solutions [2] - Many regions reported that tariffs have contributed to rising input costs [2] Future Outlook - Some regions noted an improvement in market sentiment, with a minority of respondents expecting demand to rebound in the next 6 to 12 months [1] - However, most respondents anticipate that increasing uncertainty will continue to weigh on economic activity [1] - Specific concerns were raised regarding the downward risks to economic growth posed by potential government shutdowns [1]