成本端支撑有限 PTA偏弱运行

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain has been under price pressure since early September, with PTA futures showing weak performance and prices stabilizing around 4500 yuan/ton after the National Day holiday [1] Supply Side - As of early October, PTA weekly capacity utilization has increased by approximately 7 percentage points compared to the end of August, reaching 77.84%, while PX weekly capacity utilization rose to 88.23%, up about 3.6 percentage points [1][3] - Several major facilities remain offline, with uncertain restart dates, including the 1.2 million ton facility at Sanfangxiang and the 2.25 million ton facility at Yisheng Dalian [3] - There are expectations for maintenance in October for the 1 million ton facility at Sichuan Nengtou and the 2.5 million ton facility at Dushan Energy in November, indicating limited recovery in PTA capacity utilization despite marginal increases [3] Demand Side - As of early October, demand from weaving terminals remains strong, with improved inquiry atmosphere for autumn and winter home textiles and apparel fabrics, although foreign trade orders are still low [4] - The average capacity utilization for long filaments is approximately 91.39%, and for short fibers, it is about 86.96%, both showing slight increases compared to August [4] - The overall demand performance is moderate, with limited new orders during the National Day holiday, leading to a cautious approach in raw material procurement [4] Price and Profitability - From early September to early October, processing profits in the polyester industry chain have decreased, with PX valuations dropping and PTA processing fees remaining low [2] - As of early October, the weighted profit for polyester is a monthly loss of 26 yuan/ton, significantly narrowing from a loss of 80 yuan/ton in August [2] - The expected trading range for PTA futures is between 4400 to 4800 yuan/ton, with spot processing fees anticipated to range from 100 to 300 yuan/ton [4]