历史级“逼空” 伦敦银租赁利率突破30%！已有客户被限制开仓

Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has surged to a 45-year high due to a historical "short squeeze" phenomenon, leading to significant supply shortages in the physical silver market [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of the report, COMEX silver futures rose by 3.76% to $52.525 per ounce, while London spot silver prices exceeded $53 per ounce, marking an increase of over 12% for the month and more than 80% year-to-date [2]. - The main contract for Shanghai silver futures increased by 2.3%, reaching a peak of 12,096 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly rise of nearly 8% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs rose from 24,957 tons on February 6 to 28,484 tons by October 13, a 14.13% increase, while the LBMA silver inventory was only 24,581 tons, indicating a significant supply shortage [2][3]. - Since mid-2019, the freely available silver inventory in the London market has plummeted by 75% from approximately 850 million ounces to around 200 million ounces, creating pressure on short positions [2][3]. Group 3: Market Indicators - The one-month leasing rate for silver in London has surged to over 30%, with overnight borrowing costs exceeding 100% annualized at times, reflecting the intense pressure on short sellers [2][4]. - The "short squeeze" is evidenced by a high number of delivery notices for near-month COMEX silver futures, indicating a strong demand for physical silver [3]. Group 4: Trading Activity - In September, the trading volume of silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 27.51 million contracts, a 125.59% increase month-on-month, while silver options trading rose by 125.16% [5]. - As of October 14, COMEX silver futures inventory stood at 51.562 million ounces, with no new additions and an outflow of 4.55 million ounces [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current price surge may face short-term corrections, the underlying macroeconomic factors supporting the rise in silver prices remain intact, indicating potential for further increases [10]. - The strong industrial demand for silver, particularly from sectors like electronics and electric vehicles, is expected to sustain its price momentum [8][10].