Core Viewpoint - After a brief rebound in mid-September, rebar futures prices have weakened again, with the main contract falling below 3100 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday, marking a new low for the period [1] Group 1: Inventory and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Rebar inventory has risen to a relatively high level, with a total of 6.5965 million tons as of the week ending October 10, an increase of 574,000 tons during the National Day holiday [2] - The inventory-to-consumption ratio has significantly increased to 4.518, with both inventory levels and ratios showing notable year-on-year growth of 49.56% and 154.68%, respectively [2] - The market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with weekly production dropping to 2.034 million tons, and the production from short-process steel mills decreasing by 25.50% to 232,900 tons [2] - The proportion of profitable electric arc furnace steel mills has fallen to only 25.62%, leading to production cuts due to increasing losses [2] - Apparent demand for rebar remains weak at 1.46 million tons, the lowest for the same period in the past five years, with cement and concrete shipments also showing low levels [2] Group 2: Cost and Price Dynamics - Despite the weak steel prices, raw material prices have shown relative strength, with the Platts iron ore price index at 109.2 USD/ton, near its yearly high [3] - The average daily pig iron production among 247 sample steel mills is at 2.4154 million tons, continuing to remain at a yearly high, with a year-on-year increase of 3.63% [3] - The high production costs, driven by rising iron ore and coke prices, provide some support for steel prices, which have seen a cumulative decline of 220 yuan/ton since early August [3] - Overall, the rebar market is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend, with a focus on demand performance amid supply contraction and high inventory de-stocking pressure [3]
去库存压力大 螺纹钢价格易跌难涨
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-10-16 00:18