天风证券：散奶价格短期反弹难改去化大势 奶价拐点仍可期

Core Viewpoint - Despite a rebound in raw milk prices in some regions due to pre-holiday stocking and student milk production demand, overall milk prices in major production areas remain stable and below cost lines, indicating ongoing industry losses and financial pressures from silage [1] Group 1: Milk Price Trends - Since September, some regions have seen a rebound in raw milk prices, but major production areas still maintain stable prices [1] - Current milk prices are below the cost line, leading to continued industry losses and financial pressures [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Inventory - The dairy industry is experiencing ongoing capacity reduction, with a 0.18% month-on-month decrease in dairy cow inventory in September, following a 0.2% decrease in August [1] - The cumulative reduction in dairy cow inventory has reached approximately 8% [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The short-term support for milk prices from holiday factors is expected to diminish, leading to a continuation of the capacity reduction trend [1] - The capacity reduction may be nearing its end, and a turning point in milk prices is anticipated [1]