产能持续出清 玻璃关注阶段性反弹机会

Core Viewpoint - Glass futures prices have been declining, retracing most of the gains since July 1, with the 2601 contract closing down 1.74%, marking a new low in nearly a month [1] Supply and Production - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines to support energy-saving and carbon reduction transformations in key industries, including building materials and glass [2] - The optimization and upgrading of float glass production capacity is recognized as an industry consensus, with different production lines based on raw materials: natural gas, petroleum coke, and coal gas [2] - As of October 10, the average weekly profit for float glass production lines using natural gas increased by 70 CNY/ton, coal gas by 48 CNY/ton, and petroleum coke by 42 CNY/ton, indicating a slight recovery in production [3] - The national weekly production of float glass reached 1.1289 million tons, with a utilization rate of 80.63%, reflecting a minor increase [3] Demand and Inventory - Post-October holiday, float glass inventory increased by nearly 6% compared to the end of September, contrasting with a significant decrease in the same period last year [5] - The real estate sector's slow recovery has had a limited positive impact on float glass demand, with significant declines in construction and investment metrics reported [7] - As of October 9, total inventory for float glass reached 6.2824 million weight boxes, up 5.85% month-on-month and 6.76% year-on-year, with a notable 20.63% increase in North China [5] Market Outlook - In the short term, while supply is recovering due to profit restoration, weak demand from downstream sectors and declining construction metrics contribute to a bearish market outlook for float glass [8] - Long-term trends indicate a clear direction towards capacity reduction and structural upgrades, with potential positive impacts from environmental policies and ongoing upgrades in production lines [8]