年底前“两次降息”中至少有一次50基点降息？期权市场下注美联储“做更多”

Core Viewpoint - Traders in the options market are betting on at least one significant 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, which is a more aggressive expectation than the current pricing in the interest rate swap market for two 25 basis point cuts [1][5]. Group 1: Options Market Activity - Recent activity in the options market linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) indicates that traders are positioning for a 50 basis point rate cut during the Fed's meetings in October or December [1][5]. - The open interest in December SOFR options has surged, making them an ideal tool for betting on the policy direction in the remaining meetings of the year [1][5]. - Various options strategies, such as the purchase of call spreads, reflect a strong sentiment towards the possibility of a 50 basis point cut in the upcoming meetings [6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The prolonged government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, but there is an expectation that once the government reopens, a wealth of economic data will support the case for further rate cuts [4]. - Multiple market indicators, including a recent J.P. Morgan client survey, show a shift towards a more dovish sentiment among investors, with a rise in neutral positions and a decrease in short positions [7]. - In the U.S. Treasury options market, the premium for call options, which hedge against rising bond prices (falling yields), has reached its highest level since April, indicating a willingness to pay more to protect against risks associated with falling interest rates [7].