美联储褐皮书：近几周经济活动持平，劳动力需求低迷

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that U.S. economic activity has remained largely flat in recent weeks, with overall consumer spending slightly declining [1] - Employment levels are stable, but labor demand is weak, and multiple regions report rising input costs [1][2] - Consumer spending, particularly among middle- and low-income households, has weakened, and manufacturing has been negatively impacted by tariffs [1][2] Group 2 - The labor market has shown signs of weakness over the past six weeks, with employers reporting layoffs and natural attrition to reduce workforce numbers [2] - Wages have increased across all regions, with overall growth described as moderate to average, contrasting with previous months where some regions saw no wage growth [2] - Price pressures are rising due to tariffs, but not all businesses are passing these costs onto consumers, which may help protect consumer spending [2] Group 3 - The Beige Book is unlikely to prevent the Federal Reserve from supporting further interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, as more policymakers are publicly backing this move [3] - The report aligns with Fed Chair Powell's message that economic conditions have not improved since the last rate cut on September 17 [3] - ING anticipates that the Fed will likely cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December meetings, even without key data releases [3]