螺纹钢去库存压力大

Core Viewpoint - After a brief rebound in mid-September, rebar futures prices have weakened again, with the main contract falling below 3100 yuan/ton, marking a new low for the period [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Sentiment - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on Chinese exports of rare earths and related items, leading to market risk aversion and a decline in risk asset prices [2] - The impact of the new round of tariffs on the black industry is limited, as direct exports of steel to the U.S. are minimal; however, escalating trade tensions could indirectly affect steel exports through related industries like automotive and home appliances [2] Group 2: Inventory Levels - Rebar inventory has risen to a relatively high level, with a total of 6.5965 million tons as of October 10, an increase of 574,000 tons during the National Day holiday [3] - The inventory-to-consumption ratio has significantly increased to 4.518, with year-on-year growth of 49.56% and 154.68% for inventory and inventory-to-consumption ratio, respectively [3] - Weekly rebar production has decreased to 2.034 million tons, with short-process steel mills seeing a 25.50% drop in production [3] Group 3: Cost Support - Despite weak steel prices, raw material prices remain relatively strong, with iron ore and coke prices supporting high production costs [4] - The iron ore price index is at 109.2 USD/ton, while the average daily pig iron output from 247 sample steel mills is 2.4154 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.63% [4] - The proportion of profitable steel mills has dropped to 56.28%, indicating that most varieties have turned to losses [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The combination of supply contraction, weak demand, and high inventory liquidation pressure, along with the backdrop of trade tensions, suggests that rebar prices are likely to continue a weak and volatile trend [4]