“中国一粒不买”！美国豆农破防 或失1600万吨订单 特朗普威胁“报复中国” 中方回应

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean farmers are facing significant challenges as China has ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans since May, leading to concerns about unsold products and potential financial losses [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Impact - The American Soybean Association reported that prior to 2018, an average of 28% of U.S. soybean production was exported to China, accounting for 60% of total U.S. soybean exports during that period [5]. - In the 2023-2024 marketing year, the U.S. was expected to export nearly 25 million tons of soybeans to China, significantly more than the 4.9 million tons exported to the European Union [5]. - From January to September this year, the number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at Chinese ports dropped by 56%, from 72 to 32 vessels, with no U.S. ships docking since July [6]. Group 2: Shift to South America - Since May, the average number of grain transport ships from South American countries like Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay docking at Chinese ports has been over 40 per month, with 90% of these carrying soybeans [7]. - In 2024, the U.S. exported nearly 27 million tons of soybeans to China, but from January to July this year, the export volume was only 5.9 million tons, indicating a drastic decline [9]. Group 3: U.S. Response and Strategy - The U.S. government is considering providing subsidies to farmers, but many farmers believe that market access is more critical than subsidies [5]. - The U.S. is actively seeking new buyers in Africa and Asia to compensate for the loss of the Chinese market, but these efforts are unlikely to fully replace the demand from China [11]. - The American Soybean Association has urged the Trump administration to prioritize reaching a soybean agreement with China, as other exporting countries are seizing the opportunity to capture U.S. market share [11].