Core Insights - Gold prices are moving away from historical highs, but buyers maintain control amid a weakening dollar [1] - Renewed trade tensions between the US and China, along with bets on two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, offset the IMF's optimistic outlook on global economic growth [1] Market Dynamics - Gold is experiencing a "buy on dips" trading strategy, with buyers remaining optimistic despite global stock market trends [3] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to President Trump's consideration of terminating trade relations with China, which has escalated trade tensions [3] - The US and China have begun imposing reciprocal port fees, further intensifying the trade war backdrop [3] Federal Reserve and Currency Impact - Ongoing concerns about US-China trade, coupled with expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, negatively impact the dollar, benefiting non-yielding precious metals [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts in October and December exceed 90%, despite cautious remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell [4] - The People's Bank of China set the USD/CNY midpoint at 7.0995, stronger than the previous day's rate, surprising the market [5] Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows gold challenging the upper boundary of an ascending channel, with the RSI nearing extreme overbought levels at approximately 84 [10] - Buyers are attempting to break through the upper resistance of the channel, currently at $4,184, to sustain a record rise above the $4,200 mark [11][12] - The next psychological target for bullish investors is $4,250, while a rejection at resistance could lead to a drop to the $4,100 level [13][14] - Key support is located at the lower boundary of the ascending channel, around $4,036, with a potential breakdown confirming a pattern failure and further correction to the $3,950 psychological level [15][16]
Ultima Markets金价预测：黄金/美元仍然准备进行获利回吐；还不行吗？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-15 09:22