俄罗斯持续减持人民币外汇，难道中俄关系有变？专家表示：正常现象

Core Viewpoint - Russia's recent large-scale reduction of its RMB assets has sparked widespread speculation about potential shifts in Sino-Russian relations, despite experts suggesting this is a normal market adjustment rather than a sign of deteriorating ties [3][16]. Group 1: Background and Context - Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Western nations froze approximately $300 billion of Russia's overseas assets, primarily in USD and EUR, prompting Russia to seek alternative currencies for its foreign exchange reserves [1][5]. - The share of RMB assets in Russia's foreign exchange reserves peaked at around 17% by the end of 2023, with a total value exceeding $15 billion, driven by increased trade settlements in RMB, particularly in energy transactions [8][10]. Group 2: Recent Developments - As of September 2025, Russia's total international reserves reached $713.3 billion, with foreign exchange reserves at $431 billion, while the RMB asset holdings have significantly decreased, potentially falling below $30 billion [3][10]. - The total value of RMB assets that Russia has reduced since their peak has surpassed $45 billion, leading to speculation about the depth of the Sino-Russian partnership [5][14]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The Russian economy has shown signs of instability, with a growing budget deficit and fluctuating ruble exchange rates, which have led to increased domestic demand for RMB for imports from China [10][11]. - In 2024, bilateral trade between China and Russia reached a record $244.8 billion, with 95% of transactions settled in RMB and rubles, indicating a significant shift in trade dynamics [10][12]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - The Central Bank of Russia has implemented measures to stabilize the ruble, including increasing the daily sale of foreign currency and RMB, while also issuing RMB-denominated bonds to alleviate liquidity issues [10][11][14]. - By October 2025, the Central Bank's strategy involved a systematic reduction of remaining euro-denominated assets, focusing on maintaining gold, rubles, and RMB as core reserve assets [11][14]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Analysts view the recent asset adjustments as a normal market response rather than an indication of a strategic shift, with Russia's total reserves having increased by 20% since 2022 [16]. - The ongoing evolution of the international monetary system is seen as gradually diminishing the dominance of the USD, while the RMB's role in international reserves continues to grow, positively impacting Sino-Russian economic relations [16].