啤酒行业，迎来真正的“野蛮人”

Core Insights - The beer industry is facing a downturn, with production in 2024 at 35.213 million kiloliters, a 0.6% decrease year-on-year, and only about 70% of the peak production in 2013 [1] - Major beer companies like Tsingtao Brewery and China Resources Beer have reported declines in revenue and profit [1] - The entry of new competitors, such as Mixue Ice City, into the craft beer market is adding pressure to traditional beer companies [2] Industry Trends - Demand for beer is weak, with promotions like "buy one get one free" failing to attract customers [2] - The craft beer segment is experiencing growth, with the market size expected to reach 134.2 billion yuan by 2025, up from approximately 41.5 billion yuan in 2020 [3] - Craft beer currently holds a market penetration rate of only 6.3%, indicating it has not yet reached mass-market status [3] Competitive Landscape - Mixue Ice City has acquired a 53% stake in Fresh Beer Fulu, entering the craft beer market with a focus on low pricing [2][4] - The company’s supply chain advantages allow it to maintain low prices, which could disrupt the craft beer market [4] - Other players in the craft beer space include various craft beer bars and traditional beer giants, all of which are expanding their presence [13][16] Consumer Behavior - Craft beer consumption is not yet a daily necessity for consumers, with frequency of consumption lower than that of new tea drinks [12][17] - The majority of beer consumption is still tied to dining experiences, which has been negatively impacted by the struggling restaurant industry [12] - Younger consumers are more inclined to seek moderate drinking experiences, which may limit the frequency of craft beer consumption compared to traditional beers [12][17] Future Outlook - The potential for Mixue Ice City to replicate its success in the tea market within the craft beer sector remains uncertain [10][17] - The craft beer market's growth will depend on overcoming price barriers and increasing consumer acceptance [7][12] - Traditional beer giants pose a significant challenge to new entrants like Mixue Ice City, as they leverage established brands and supply chains [16][17]