创新药出海产业周期+海外流动性宽松周期，四季度恒生创新药ETF(159316)配置机遇备受关注

Group 1 - The total amount of contracts for Chinese innovative drug patents going overseas exceeded $100 billion from January to September, representing a year-on-year increase of 170% [1] - A series of overseas pharmaceutical academic conferences will be held in October and November, including the ESMO conference in Berlin from October 17 to 21, where Chinese innovative drug companies and laboratories will showcase their latest achievements [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to be a peak season for business development in innovative drugs, suggesting continued attention to the performance of Chinese pharmaceutical companies going abroad [1] Group 2 - On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with Chairman Powell's speech interpreted as a signal for further rate cuts, leading to a 100% probability of rate cuts according to current federal funds futures contracts [1] - Historically, during interest rate cut cycles, global pharmaceutical and biotech assets have performed well; since September 18, the NBI in the US has increased by 7%, and biotech companies in Europe and South Korea have also performed well [1] - In contrast, Hong Kong's innovative drug sector, which has strong fundamentals, has underperformed, indicating potential medium to long-term investment opportunities in this sector [1]