人民币中间价年内大涨近900点，收复7.1关口

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is attributed to both internal and external factors, indicating a potential long-term upward trend in the yuan's value [4][8][11]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of October 16, the yuan's central parity against the US dollar was set at 7.0968, an increase of 27 basis points from the previous day [1]. - The yuan has appreciated over 900 points against the dollar this year, with an onshore appreciation of 2.40% and an offshore appreciation exceeding 2.8% [3]. Economic Indicators - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first increase in 19 months, reflecting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies [3]. - The strong performance of the A-share market has attracted international capital back to Chinese assets, increasing demand for the yuan [4][8]. External Influences - The risk of economic recession in the US and the Federal Reserve's signals of potential interest rate cuts have pressured the US dollar, indirectly boosting the yuan's value [4][8]. - The Federal Reserve's recent data suggests little change in the US employment and inflation outlook, leading to a near 100% probability of a rate cut in October [3]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that the yuan may have entered a long-term appreciation cycle, driven by the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy and a favorable domestic economic environment [9][10][11]. - The relative economic strength of China compared to the US is expected to support the yuan's value in the long run, despite potential fluctuations [11].