【库存解读·LPG】9月供需博弈加剧 炼厂库存与港口库存背离

Core Viewpoint - In September, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market experienced a dual weakness in supply and demand, with refinery inventory decreasing while port inventory increased, indicating a lack of strong expectations for market improvement in the near future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inventory Analysis - As of September 30, the LPG refinery inventory rate was 27.91%, down 1.52 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The estimated domestic LPG commodity volume for September was 1.6221 million tons, a decrease of 5.65% month-on-month, with an average daily commodity volume of 54,070 tons, down 0.14% [2]. - The average port inventory rate for domestic main ports was 52.36%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points from the previous month [3]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic PDH (propane dehydrogenation) plant operating rates showed a decline followed by a slight recovery, with a weekly operating rate of 72.03% as of September 25, down 0.55 percentage points from the end of the previous month [3]. - Despite a traditional peak season for propane consumption, terminal demand growth was below expectations due to ongoing policy impacts [3]. Group 3: Price Trends - The LPG market in September showed a divergence in price trends, with residential gas prices initially rising but later declining due to increased port resources and weak terminal demand [6]. - The ether C4 market remained weak, influenced by poor downstream demand and rising upstream inventory pressures, leading to accelerated price declines [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The LPG market is expected to exhibit weak and fluctuating trends in October, with passive consumption of refinery and port inventories [7]. - Residential gas prices are anticipated to be weak due to abundant domestic supply and declining import costs, despite a potential increase in burning demand as temperatures drop [7].