一天之内，三件大事联动！从美联储到A股，全球市场迎来关键日

Core Insights - The global financial market experienced a historic upheaval on October 16, 2025, marked by the Federal Reserve's policy shift, a significant rebound in A-shares, and gold prices soaring past $4,200, fundamentally altering global capital flow dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve announced the end of its balance sheet reduction, with its balance sheet size decreasing from a peak of $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion, concluding a three-year quantitative tightening cycle [3]. - The anticipated interest rate cut of 25 basis points on October 28, with a 93.5% probability of a total cut of 50 basis points by December, was driven by a deteriorating job market and tariff impacts [3]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, prompting the Fed to abandon its anti-inflation priority strategy [3]. Group 2: A-share Market Dynamics - The A-share market saw a dramatic rebound, with the ChiNext Index surging 2.36% to surpass 3,000 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising 1.4% to reach a new yearly high [3]. - Northbound capital inflow reached 12.9 billion, with the electronic sector receiving a significant boost of 67.78% in main capital allocation [3]. - Semiconductor stocks were ignited by the announcement from SMIC regarding a 90% yield on 14nm chips, highlighting the domestic substitution narrative [3]. Group 3: Gold Market Surge - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.48% to $4,224.9, marking a 23% increase year-to-date [4]. - Global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.3 billion in a single day, the highest since 2020 [4]. - The revaluation of gold's safe-haven status was driven by the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and escalating geopolitical conflicts [4]. Group 4: Market Restructuring Effects - The anticipated Fed rate cut led to a 0.39% decline in the US dollar index, stabilizing the RMB at around 7.12, with northbound capital increasing by over 5 billion in electronic stocks [4]. - The ChiNext Index's price-to-earnings ratio recovered from 50 times to 67 times, while the average price-to-sales ratio for semiconductor firms on the Sci-Tech board exceeded 15 times [4]. - Technology growth stocks, with a PE ratio of 72 times, took over the leadership from financial heavyweight stocks, which had a PE ratio of 8 times [4]. Group 5: Technological Revolution - The demand for AI computing power ignited a chip revolution, with Apple's M5 chip pre-orders starting and TSMC's 3nm capacity fully booked [4]. - The national supercomputing internet phase II project commenced, with data center construction investments surpassing 1 trillion [4]. - The photovoltaic leader Longi Green Energy announced mass production of perovskite batteries, creating a "dual drive" effect between new energy and semiconductors [4]. Group 6: Geopolitical Dynamics - China implemented quota controls on rare earth exports, leading to a daily surge in Northern Rare Earth stocks [4]. - The US escalated AI chip export restrictions to China, with Cambrian receiving a 10 billion investment from the national team [4]. - The passage of a nationalization bill for lithium mines in Chile accelerated CATL's expansion in South America [4]. Group 7: Future Market Restructuring - The valuation system is shifting from PE to PS, with the median PS for Sci-Tech board companies reaching 12 times, breaking the traditional 20 times PE framework [4]. - The visibility of orders for semiconductor equipment companies extends to 2026, with advance payments exceeding 40% of revenue [4]. - The digital yuan's cross-border payment pilot expanded to 47 countries, while SWIFT system transaction volume decreased by 12% [4]. Group 8: Investment Strategies - Recommended investments include infrastructure for computing power (Zhongji Xuchuang), servers (Inspur), and IDC (Baoxin Software) [5]. - Focus on domestic substitution in semiconductor equipment (Northern Huachuang), EDA software (Hua Da Jiu Tian), and materials (Hu Silicon Industry) [5]. - Capture policy dividends by monitoring the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's monthly updates on "little giant" companies [5].