两年牛市征程：黄金的崛起与未来高点展望

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced a significant rise from early 2023 to October 2025, reflecting deep changes in the global economic landscape, with prices expected to continue rising towards $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1][7]. Market Dynamics - In 2023, gold prices fluctuated between $1800 and $2000 per ounce, influenced by the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes and concerns over inflation and economic recession. Domestic gold prices remained stable at 500-550 RMB per gram, with moderate growth in physical consumption and investment demand [4]. - 2024 marked a turning point as expectations for interest rate cuts grew, alongside increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a rise in gold's safe-haven appeal. International gold prices surpassed $2500 per ounce, while domestic gold T+D prices exceeded 700 RMB per gram [4]. - By 2025, gold entered a "super bull market," with prices rising from approximately $2667 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4000 by October. Domestic gold T+D prices reached 968 RMB per gram, marking a nearly 20% increase since the start of the year [5]. Influencing Factors - The shift in U.S. monetary policy, particularly the expectation of interest rate cuts, has been a key driver for gold prices. By September 2025, the market anticipated further rate cuts, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [5][6]. - Increasing U.S. fiscal risks and concerns over dollar credit have enhanced gold's appeal as a hedge against currency uncertainty. The ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks, including China, has further supported gold prices [6]. - Investment demand has surged, with significant increases in gold recycling and inflows into gold ETFs, compensating for weaker physical consumption [6]. Market Predictions - Market institutions generally maintain an optimistic outlook for gold prices, with several banks projecting prices to reach $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs has raised its target to $4900, while some analysts predict prices could hit $10,000 by 2030 [7]. - However, there are differing views on short-term price movements, with some banks forecasting potential corrections and a return to below $3000 in the coming quarters [7][8]. - The long-term narrative supporting gold's rise remains intact, driven by the restructuring of the international monetary system and ongoing central bank purchases, although unexpected strong economic data or easing geopolitical tensions could signal a peak in prices [7][8].