ETO Markets 市场洞察：黄金涨到天花板了？RSI超买警报响彻市场，却仍敢冲4300？

Core Viewpoint - The demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold, is being driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and ongoing global trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a sharp slowdown in hiring poses risks to the U.S. economy, suggesting the possibility of two more rate cuts this year [3]. - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming October meeting, followed by another cut in December, and three additional cuts next year [3]. Group 2: Trade Tensions Impact - The escalation of trade tensions is expected to increase shipping costs and disrupt logistics, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Analyst Fawad Razaqzada noted that renewed trade tensions provide investors with more reasons to hedge against stock market risks by allocating to gold [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is closely monitoring speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as hawkish signals could strengthen the dollar and exert pressure on gold prices [3]. - Despite potential pullback risks, the strong upward trend in gold prices suggests that market participants do not expect a significant drop after reaching new highs [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The current gold price chart shows a clear bullish trend, with prices consistently breaking historical highs and minor pullbacks [5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that gold is in an overbought state, which typically suggests a phase of consolidation or slight correction may occur [5]. - Key support levels are identified at $4,117, $4,059, $4,023, and the $4,000 round number, while upward targets are set at $4,300 and $4,400 [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Gold retains upward potential due to multiple favorable factors, but investors should remain cautious of short-term volatility risks [7]. - The market will continue to look for key signals regarding gold's next phase of movement through Federal Reserve officials' speeches and developments in trade relations [7].