广州期货：多因素构筑贵金属强势格局 价格中期上行走势依然明朗

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guangzhou Futures highlights that ongoing uncertainties in international trade, the recent U.S. government shutdown, recession fears, and the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle have collectively fueled strong market risk aversion, leading to rising prices for gold and silver [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to multiple factors, including international trade uncertainties and the U.S. government shutdown [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to enter a rate-cutting cycle, with a 95.67% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 94.64% probability of a total 50 basis point cut by December [1] Group 2: Support for Precious Metals - Multiple positive factors are contributing to the strong performance of precious metals, including persistent geopolitical and policy uncertainties that drive demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The Federal Reserve's clear shift to a rate-cutting cycle is expected to continue throughout the year, improving the holding environment for precious metals [2] - Continuous accumulation by global central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, provides long-term structural support for rising gold prices [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential technical pullback risks, the medium-term upward trend for precious metal prices remains clear, necessitating close monitoring of core driving factors [2]