日本央行“鹰王”呼吁加息：通胀上行风险加剧 当前政策利率仍远低于中性水平

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's most hawkish policy committee member, Naoki Tamura, advocates for an interest rate hike due to increasing inflation risks, maintaining his stance from the previous month's policy meeting [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Naoki Tamura believes the Bank of Japan is at a stage where it should consider raising policy rates to adjust the degree of monetary easing and bring rates closer to neutral levels [1] - The probability of a rate hike during the upcoming meeting has dropped significantly from approximately 70% to around 15% since the end of September [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Tamura suggests that the Bank of Japan may achieve its stable 2% inflation target sooner than the official forecast of the second half of the prediction period ending March 2028 [2] - He warns that if the central bank falls behind in addressing inflation, it may have to raise rates rapidly to stabilize prices, potentially causing severe damage to the Japanese economy [2] Group 3: Political Context - Recent political developments in Japan have led to market volatility, particularly following the unexpected victory of a pro-monetary easing candidate in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election [2] - The dissolution of the ruling coalition has cast doubt on the prospects of the pro-easing candidate becoming the next Prime Minister [2] Group 4: Neutral Interest Rate - Tamura asserts that Japan's neutral interest rate is at least around 1% and emphasizes the need for careful assessment during the gradual rate hike process [2] - He indicates that a single rate increase would be insufficient, as the current policy rate remains significantly below the neutral rate [2]