LME WEEEK：美国铝价格走升刺激加拿大对美国铝出口

Core Insights - Canadian aluminum producers have increased shipments to the U.S. market due to rising spot market aluminum prices, highlighting the impact of the 50% aluminum import tariff imposed by Trump earlier this year [1] - The U.S. aluminum tariff, effective from June, aims to boost domestic aluminum production and encourage investment in metals used in electricity, construction, and packaging industries [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of October, U.S. consumers are paying a premium for aluminum above LME prices, in addition to taxes, freight, and handling costs [1] - The U.S. is projected to import 2.7 million tons of aluminum from Canada in 2024, accounting for 70% of total U.S. aluminum imports for that year [1] Group 2: Price Trends - U.S. aluminum premiums reached a record high of $0.77 per pound or $1,697 per ton, marking a 250% increase since January [2] - The aluminum premium for Canadian producers has decreased, leading to a 46% increase in European aluminum premiums to $266 per ton since June [3] Group 3: Export Data - From January to August, Canadian exports of unwrought aluminum to the U.S. fell by 22% year-on-year to 1.4 million tons [3] - In August, shipments from Canada to the U.S. totaled 123,474 tons, a 51% decrease from March levels [4] - Conversely, Canadian aluminum shipments to Europe increased by 94% year-on-year to 189,320 tons for the same period [5] Group 4: Inventory and Future Outlook - U.S. Comex aluminum inventories have dropped by 73% since January, totaling 7,661 tons [6] - Analysts suggest that without new trade agreements, aluminum premiums in the U.S. Midwest may have further upward potential [6]