黄金新高后，指数反弹能否持续？揭秘市场韧性下的投资机会

Market Analysis - The A-share market is characterized by a "defensive battle" at key levels, with significant difficulty in maintaining upward momentum as seen in previous bullish trends [2] - The current market sentiment is cautious, with a notable increase in the number of low-priced stocks and significant selling from shareholders of high-priced stocks [2] - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown crisis, raising concerns about the stability of the dollar and U.S. sovereign debt, which is driving capital into the gold market [2][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on October 29 has risen to 95.7%, which could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold and support its price [3][8] Sector Performance - The insurance, communication equipment, and photovoltaic sectors are performing well, while wind power, forestry, cement, and steel sectors are lagging [3] - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a surge, particularly in electrolyte stocks, with prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate rising by 21.13% from September 16 to October 13 [4] - The storage chip sector is also gaining strength, with significant price increases expected in the fourth quarter for server eSSD and DDR5 RDIMM [4] Investment Sentiment - Foreign investment firms are optimistic about the A-share market, viewing recent adjustments as opportunities for long-term positioning, particularly in technology stocks [13] - Multiple companies have announced share buyback plans, signaling confidence in the market and providing a boost to investor sentiment [13] - The "anti-involution" policy is gaining attention, with institutional investors favoring stocks that benefit from this trend [8][13] Gold Market Outlook - The demand for gold is expected to remain strong due to ongoing purchases by global central banks to hedge against dollar credit risks, with a significant increase in gold reserves [14][15] - Global gold ETFs have shifted from net sellers to net buyers, indicating a rising demand for gold [14] - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the complex global geopolitical landscape are expected to drive gold prices higher in the future [15]