谁导演了“1011”加密货币大崩盘？

Core Insights - The global financial markets experienced significant turbulence following the National Day holiday in 2025, with the A-share Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.94% and the Nasdaq index falling by 3.56% on October 10. The cryptocurrency market faced even harsher conditions, with a record liquidation amount of $13.475 billion within 24 hours on October 11, marking the highest single-day liquidation in history [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Causes - The "1011 Black Swan" event was triggered by macroeconomic risks, market structure imbalances, and a crisis of technical trust, rather than being an isolated incident [1]. - The immediate catalyst for the market crash was the announcement by former President Trump on October 10 regarding a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and expanded export controls, which led to a global risk-off sentiment and a downgrade in the World Trade Organization's 2026 global goods trade growth forecast to 0.5%, the lowest since 2009 [1][2]. Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - In 2025, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets reached a historical peak, with Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 rising to 0.78, indicating that 40% of cryptocurrency price fluctuations could be explained by S&P 500 volatility [2][6]. - The leverage in the market significantly increased, with retail investors' average leverage ratio soaring to 10 times, and the overall market leverage ratio reaching a high of 38% since May 2022 [2][3]. Group 3: Technical and Structural Issues - The USDe stablecoin's 12% subsidy policy led to a leveraged entry into the market, creating a false sense of prosperity. However, this model's vulnerability became apparent when collateral prices fell, triggering a "death spiral" in the leveraged market as forced liquidations exacerbated price declines [3][5]. - The absence of major market makers during the crash period contributed to a liquidity crisis, as algorithmic trading triggered stop-loss orders at critical support levels, leading to a rapid price decline [3][4]. Group 4: Trust and Security Concerns - The market faced a trust collapse due to technical security anxieties, particularly regarding quantum computing threats. Over 60% of Bitcoin supply is stored in addresses vulnerable to quantum attacks, raising concerns about the security of digital assets [4][5]. - The USDe de-pegging incident, where it fell to $0.62 (a 38% drop), highlighted the risks associated with stablecoin mechanisms and the lack of liquidity during extreme market conditions [5][7]. Group 5: Regulatory and Market Sentiment - The tightening of global regulatory policies was evident, with the SEC and other international bodies initiating actions against unregulated crypto exchanges, leading to a significant drop in trading volumes [8]. - Despite the recent downturn, the underlying drivers of the cryptocurrency bull market, such as global liquidity easing, remain intact, suggesting that the market may be undergoing a deep adjustment rather than a complete reversal [9][10].