市场波动加大，红利的防守价值备受关注

Group 1 - Recent market volatility has increased due to extreme trading sentiment, with the deviation of the full A index from its 200-day moving average reaching historical highs above 90% [1] - Relative valuations have also risen, with the ERP of the CSI 300 approaching two standard deviations below its three-year rolling average, indicating that the relative attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds is at a historically low level [3] - External events, such as changes in the trade environment, have added uncertainty to the market [5] Group 2 - The technology sector has seen significant performance driven by favorable industry trends and policy support, leading to high valuations that may cause increased volatility [5] - Analysis of the rolling returns of small-cap growth and large-cap value indices over the past 12 months shows a divergence in performance, with the return difference reaching historical highs, suggesting a potential for mean reversion [8] - At the peak before the holiday, the return difference between the two styles exceeded 50%, placing it above the 95th percentile historically, indicating a likelihood of balance in styles moving forward [6][8]