9月M2-M1剪刀差创近四年最低，货币活化程度提速

Core Insights - The overall financial data for September indicates stability, with significant growth in both broad (M2) and narrow (M1) money supply, supporting economic recovery [2][6][9] - The increase in RMB loans and social financing reflects strong support for the real economy, although there are signs of seasonal adjustments in credit issuance [3][9] Monetary Supply - As of September, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [6][7] - The narrowing gap between M2 and M1 indicates improved liquidity and a more active economy, with M2-M1 "scissors difference" at its lowest in nearly four years [7][9] Loan Growth - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, with September alone contributing 1.29 trillion yuan, although this was 300 billion yuan less than the previous year [3][4] - Corporate loans in September rose by 1.22 trillion yuan, while household loans increased by 389 billion yuan, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [4][5] Social Financing - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan by the end of September, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, although the monthly increase was lower than in previous years [9][10] - The decline in new social financing in September was attributed to reduced government bond issuance and lower corporate loan growth compared to the previous year [9][10] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the fourth quarter will see continued supportive monetary policy to bolster economic recovery, with expectations of new policy financial tools to support corporate loans [10][11] - The stability and sustainability of retail loan growth will depend on improvements in employment and income levels, which are crucial for boosting consumer demand [5][10]