Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-16 09:17Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with the core issue being the need for capacity clearance driven by anti-involution policies [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is facing high inventory levels, particularly in the silicon material segment, with total inventory expected to be between 400,000 to 500,000 tons [3] - The demand outlook for 2026 is uncertain, and if silicon material output remains at current levels, normalizing inventory levels within that year will be challenging [3] - The anti-involution policies are expected to guide the industry back to reasonable profit levels, with significant undervaluation of certain second-tier leaders and specific segments [4] Group 2: Price Trends and Capacity Management - The rectification of below-cost sales has shown significant results, with silicon material prices rising from 34,000 CNY/ton to approximately 52,000 CNY/ton, surpassing the cost levels of leading enterprises [2] - The new energy consumption standards for polysilicon are expected to be a key method for capacity clearance, with the new standards set to be implemented by the end of 2026 [2][3] - The focus on capacity integration and the elimination of outdated capacity is crucial for the industry's recovery [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to benefit from the anti-involution trend, with leading companies likely to see significant upside potential [4] - Specific companies to watch include Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Daqo New Energy (688303.SH), LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ), Trina Solar (688599.SH), and others [4] - The BC battery technology is highlighted for its premium pricing and improved margins, with companies like Aiko Solar (600732.SH) and LONGi Green Energy recommended for investment [5] - The TOPCon 3.0 technology is anticipated to achieve higher efficiency, with companies adopting advanced techniques expected to benefit [4]