ASML Holding(US:ASML) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-16 09:23Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - The EUV lithography machines from ASML are heavily reliant on rare earth permanent magnets, with each machine requiring 1.2 tons of these materials, 80% of which are sourced from China [2] - In 2023, the Netherlands followed the US in restricting DUV lithography machine exports to China, leading to a two-week halt in ASML's DUV production, resulting in a loss of 4 million euros per day [2] - If the Netherlands imposes further restrictions, a potential cut in rare earth supplies could severely impact ASML's EUV production, with a projected loss of 60 billion euros in semiconductor equipment exports, accounting for 35% of the Netherlands' total equipment exports [2] Group 2: Agricultural Sector - The Netherlands is the second-largest agricultural exporter globally, with China being its third-largest market, projected to export 12 billion euros in agricultural products to China in 2024 [4] - Cheese exports to China are significant, with 180,000 tons sold, making up 25% of the Netherlands' total cheese exports; any trade restrictions could lead to a 25% price drop, resulting in losses exceeding 100 million euros for Dutch dairy farmers [4] - The flower industry, particularly tulips, is also at risk, as China imports 500 million tulips annually; increased inspections could lead to a 30% price drop, severely impacting small flower farmers [6] Group 3: Logistics and Trade - The Port of Rotterdam, crucial for the Dutch economy, handles 460 million tons of cargo in 2024, with 22% related to China; any reduction in trade could lead to an 8% drop in container throughput, equating to a loss of 368,000 standard containers [8] - The logistics company DSV has 18% of its revenue from China; a decrease in trade through Rotterdam could lead to significant job losses, with 2,000 dockworkers potentially affected [9] - The Netherlands' trade surplus with China is projected at 4.5 billion euros in 2024; retaliatory measures from China could flip this surplus into a deficit, negatively impacting GDP growth [11]