鹏华基本面投教系列｜近期有色金属价格强势上涨,背后逻辑有哪些?

Group 1 - The global non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with international gold prices surpassing $4200 per ounce and copper prices nearing historical highs [1] - Factors driving the increase in non-ferrous metal prices include high expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 97% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool [1] - Supply-demand imbalances are also contributing to the price surge, with constraints on supply due to insufficient capital expenditure, a decrease in quality mines, and the strategic importance of resource commodities [1] Group 2 - A recent joint announcement by eight departments in China outlines a "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)," targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in industry value added by 2026 [2] - The plan provides a clear development path for the non-ferrous metal industry, setting specific growth objectives for the years 2025 to 2026 [2] Group 3 - Short-term outlook suggests that safe-haven sentiment will continue to support precious metal prices, while long-term factors such as expanding U.S. fiscal deficits and geopolitical conflicts may sustain demand for gold [3] - The market may experience increased volatility in gold prices due to potential discrepancies in rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions following the anticipated October rate cut [3] - Overall, the current non-ferrous metal market is benefiting from rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside tightening supply and increasing demand [3]