“避险天堂”不再平静？外资搅动日本国债风云

Group 1 - Political turmoil and concerns over central bank interest rate hikes have increased uncertainty for investors, leading to significant volatility in Japan's long-term government bond yields [1] - The recent election of fiscal dove candidate Sanae Takaichi as the leader of Japan's ruling party has caused the 30-year Japanese government bond yield to surge to a historical high, but it later retreated due to doubts about her parliamentary support [1][6] - Overseas investors have been net buyers of Japan's ultra-long-term government bonds for eight consecutive months, with a record monthly purchase of 2.3 trillion yen (approximately 155.6 billion) in April [3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's decision to abandon negative interest rates and maintain a gradual rate hike path contrasts sharply with the easing policies of other major central banks, reactivating relative value trading in the Japanese market [3] - The volatility in both ends of the yield curve has made it easier for investors to speculate on the curve's shape, as previously stable short-term bonds now exhibit more fluctuation [3][6] - Market expectations for a rate hike in the upcoming Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting have decreased, with the probability dropping from nearly 40% to 20% [6]