俄罗斯出新规，跨境卖家成本要暴涨

Core Viewpoint - Russia is implementing a significant tax reform for cross-border e-commerce, introducing a phased VAT system starting from 2027, with rates increasing from 5% to 20% by 2030, which will drastically reshape the operational landscape for foreign sellers, particularly those from China [2][4][6]. Tax Rate Changes - Starting January 1, 2027, foreign goods purchased through e-commerce platforms will be subject to VAT, beginning at 5% in 2027, increasing to 10% in 2028, 15% in 2029, and reaching 20% by 2030 [4][6]. - The tax exemption threshold will be significantly reduced, from 200 euros to 100 euros in 2026, then to 50 euros in 2027, with potential elimination of all exemptions by 2030 [6][8]. Impact on Sellers and Platforms - The new VAT regulations will require platforms like Ozon, Wildberries, and Yandex Market to directly calculate, collect, and report taxes, making it impossible for sellers to bypass the system [6][9]. - Sellers not registered for VAT who exceed a monthly sales threshold of 2 million rubles will face a 20% tax deduction from their sales, along with potential back taxes for the past three years [6][9]. Market Dynamics - The reform aims to address a fiscal gap of approximately 1 trillion rubles annually and to level the playing field between local retailers and foreign sellers, who have gained market share due to previous tax advantages [6][11]. - Cross-border e-commerce, while only accounting for about 3% of the Russian e-commerce market, is growing rapidly and is now under increased regulatory scrutiny [11][12]. Strategic Adjustments for Sellers - Sellers will need to reassess their pricing and profit models, potentially shifting some inventory to local warehouses to mitigate tax and logistics risks [7][12]. - The logistics and warehousing challenges are expected to increase, prompting platforms to invest in new logistics centers to enhance delivery efficiency and manage tax implications [9][11]. Long-term Market Evolution - The introduction of VAT signifies a shift from a price-driven market to one focused on brand and service quality, with compliance becoming a fundamental requirement for success [12][13]. - Companies that adapt their operations and enhance their brand presence are likely to secure a more stable position in the evolving market landscape [13][14].