【UNforex财经事件】黄金稳守纪录高点 美元承压不止 贸易与政策风险交织

Group 1 - Spot gold (XAU/USD) reached a historical high of $4240 before stabilizing above $4200, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and the U.S. fiscal deadlock, leading investors to increase their positions in safe-haven assets [1] - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, diminishing the dollar's yield advantage and providing ongoing support for gold [1] - The dollar index (DXY) fell to around 98.50, marking a one-week low, as market bets on further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve reached a probability of 94.6% for a total of 50 basis points this year [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, with the Treasury estimating weekly economic losses of approximately $15 billion, impacting economic activity [2] - Market sentiment is fluctuating between "rate cut expectations" and "safe-haven demand," with funds flowing into precious metals and European currencies as the dollar remains under pressure [2] - The upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown will be critical in determining the timing of any potential dollar rebound [2]